Thursday, December 5, 2019

Who’s Winning the Vampire Squid Primary?

From Bill Clinton to Barack Obama, top Democrats have long been beholden to the predatory and socially useless private equity industry. This time, the finance bros are donating in droves to Biden, Buttigieg . . . and Deval Patrick (?). They just really want to stop Bernie Sanders.
Private equity, as an industry, has been responsible for massive wealth theft in recent years: that is, large-scale redistribution of wealth upward, from the working class to the ownership class. Whether through bankruptcies and job loss (famously at Toys “R” Us, for example), the looting of pensions, or increasing the ranks of the billionaire class, private equity is an enemy of the 99 percent and especially the working class.
The sector’s profiteers have money to spend to buy political influence, and they’d love to make a return on that investment. The good news is, some of their favorite candidates are tanking.
Bernie Sanders is running a solid second in most polls, with a message strongly opposed to the exploitation and inequality that private equity (PE) epitomizes. Not surprisingly, the industry flatly does not want either Sanders or Elizabeth Warren to be president, and its employees haven’t donated significant sums to either candidate. In fact, judging from their contributions, the industry — apart from the segment supporting Trump out of pure short-term id — is desperate to find candidates who can defeat the Left within the Democratic Party. PE doesn’t like the sound of wealth taxes, nor of redistributive programs like the Green New Deal, Medicare for All, or free college.
Nor does it appear to like the women in this cycle, not even the centrists they’ve supported in the past, like Kamala Harris (may her campaign rest in peace) or Amy Klobuchar. Sexism could be a factor: private equity is a male-dominated industry; a Bloomberg Businessweek analysis recently found that globally, women fill only 8 percent of senior investment jobs at the ten largest PE firms. In trying to boost their numbers of women, according to a recent study, PE firms have struggled even more than venture capital and hedge funds. In addition to their rapacious role in class warfare, PE firms are seriously patriarchal organizations.
Joe Biden is a huge favorite of PE donors, getting large sums from Blackstone and drawing more contributions from the Carlyle Group and Apollo Global Management than any other candidate. Blackstone employees have given slightly more to McKinsey alum and acknowledged smarty-pants Mayor Pete Buttigieg. KKR employees have also favored the South Bend mayor. Bain Capital employees have overwhelmingly favored Biden, though they enjoyed a flirtation with Beto O’Rourke and have also been generous with Mayor Pete.
But the industry has also been crushed out on some truly unpopular candidates.
Hedge fund billionaire environmentalist Tom Steyer, polling at less than 2 percent, has attracted support from Bain, Hellman & Friedman, and General Atlantic (as well as from his own hedge fund, Farallon Capital Management).
A bigger industry fave is Cory Booker, who, while losing much interest from big donors after he denounced super PACs, has reaped huge contributions from PE titans at firms like Harvest Partners, Paloma Equity Partners, and Apollo, as well as Blackstone. He’s polling at less than 2 percent, according to RealClearPolitics, which takes an average of five different polls.
Then there’s Deval Patrick, who outpaces everyone in PE support and underperforms almost everyone in the polls. Patrick, whose awfulness we’ve recently discussed, and who stepped down from Bain Capital the very week he announced he was entering the primary, will, of course, be the favored son of the industry since he is literally one of them. Before he even officially entered the race, he got $350,000 from a daddy-and-me pair of billionaire golf enthusiasts, Paul and Dan Fireman, who run a Boston private equity firm. Patrick is polling at less than half a percentage point.
Even back in 2012, when hatred of the rich and the finance industry wasn’t nearly as robust as it is now, GOP candidate Mitt Romney couldn’t live down the PE stigma. His record at Bain Capital dogged him even in the Republican primary, and in the general election, Obama ran against it hard. Now, in a far more populist moment, private equity is seen as even more toxic. That doesn’t mean the industry couldn’t have a significant influence: Biden is unfortunately still a front-runner, and Mayor Pete doesn’t seem to be going away. Some PE donors — nihilistic asset-strippers that they are — will turn to Trump in the general election. But it’s good news that many of their pet Democrats are faring so poorly.
Liza Featherstone
12/04/2019

Saturday, November 23, 2019

The Myth of Voter Fraud

THE MYTH OF VOTER FRAUD – And the Truth About What’s Threatening Our Elections
Donald Trump and his enablers have been making claims of widespread voter fraud, alleging millions of people are voting illegally in order to rig our elections.
Baloney. Let’s look at the facts and debunk their myths once and for all.
They claim millions of Americans are voting twice, using multiple registrations in different districts.
So how often does double voting really occur? An analysis of the 2012 presidential election found that out of 129 million votes cast, 0.02% – that’s two one hundredths of one percent – were double votes – which were likely the result of measurement error. This is a far cry from Donald Trump’s claims that millions of people were registered in two different states in the 2016 presidential election.
Trump and his enablers claim non-citizens are voting in droves. Trump himself said that thousands of undocumented immigrants voted in 2016.
Another lie. According to the non-partisan Brennan Center for Justice, of 23.5 million votes cast in districts with high populations of non-citizens only 30 – I repeat, thirty – possible incidents of improper non-citizen voting were referred for further investigation.
They claim voter impersonation is rampant at the polls.
False. A 12-year study of election data found only 10 cases of voter impersonation out of 146 million registered voters. Ten.
So if voter fraud really isn’t a problem, why do Trump, Republicans in Congress, and their allies at Fox News keep perpetuating this myth? For one simple reason: To enact restrictive voting laws intended to keep voters from the polls.
Policies established in the name of election security – including voter ID laws, needless registration deadlines, limited access to polling places, and purges of the voter rolls – make it harder for Americans to vote. It is the same tactic that has been used throughout our history to disenfranchise low-income Americans and people of color.
Luckily, many of these laws have been struck down in the courts. In 2016, a district judge in Wisconsin found “utterly no evidence” of widespread voter fraud justifying its voter ID law. In Texas, another judge found their voter ID law violated the Voting Rights Act, making it harder for African-Americans and Latinos to vote.
But many of these laws are still on the books because in 2013 the Supreme Court gutted crucial aspects of the Voting Rights Act.
Congress needs to update the Act to prevent states from suppressing votes.
Meanwhile, Trump and Republicans in Congress are turning a blind eye to the real threats facing our democracy: election fraud, and foreign interference.
In 2018, a Republican operative stole votes from Democrats in a North Carolina congressional race with a quote, “coordinated, unlawful, and substantially resourced absentee ballot scheme.” After the ballots were counted, the Republican candidate appeared to have won by about 900 votes. But the fraud was so glaring that the state board of elections refused to certify the results and called for a special election.
The other real threat is foreign interference in our elections, as Russia did in 2016.
We now know for a fact that Trump is encouraging foreign leaders to interfere in our elections — asking the President of Ukraine to investigate his political opponents in exchange for military aid and publicly calling on Russia and China to also interfere.
In the Senate, Mitch McConnell continues to block common-sense legislation to protect our elections against future foreign interference, such as requiring all voting machines to have backup paper ballots and imposing automatic sanctions for nations that interfere in elections. To have safe and secure elections in 2020 and beyond, we need to pass this legislation.
The next time you hear Trump and his enablers claim widespread voter fraud, know the truth. Their lies are intended to make it harder for millions of Americans to vote, while they ignore the real threats to our democracy.
Robert Reich
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22, 2019

Saturday, November 16, 2019

Why Billionaires Don’t Really Like Capitalism

Why Billionaires Don’t Really Like Capitalism


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 11, 2019

By Robert Reich
Billionaires are wailing that Elizabeth Warren’s and Bernie Sanders’s wealth tax proposals are attacks on free market capitalism.
Warren “vilifies successful people,” says Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase.
Rubbish. There are basically only five ways to accumulate a billion dollars, and none of them has to do with being successful in free market capitalism.    
The first way is to exploit a monopoly.
Jamie Dimon is worth $1.6 billion. That’s not because he succeeded in the free market. In 2008 the government bailed out JPMorgan and four other giant Wall Street banks because it considered them “too big to fail.”
That bailout is a hidden insurance policy, still in effect, with an estimated value to the big banks of $83 billion a year. If JPMorgan weren’t so big and was therefore allowed to fail, Dimon would be worth far less than $1.6 billion.
What about America’s much-vaulted entrepreneurs, such as Jeff Bezos, now worth $110 billion? You might say Bezos deserves this because he founded and built Amazon.
But Amazon is a monopolist with nearly 50 percent of all e-commerce retail sales in America, and e-commerce is one of the biggest sectors of retail sales. In addition, Amazon’s business is protected by a slew of patents granted by the U.S. government.
If the government enforced anti-monopoly laws, and didn’t give Amazon such broad patents,Bezos would be worth far less than $110 billion.
A second way to make a billion is to get insider information unavailable to other investors.
Hedge-fund maven Steven A. Cohen, worth $12.8 billion, headed up a hedge fund firm in which, according to a criminal complaint filed by the Justice Department, insider trading was “substantial, pervasive, and on a scale without known precedent in the hedge fund industry.” Nine of Cohen’s present or former employees pleaded guilty or were convicted. Cohen got off with a fine, changed the name of his firm, and apparently is back at the game.  
Insider trading is endemic in C-suites, too. SEC researchers have found that corporate executives are twice as likely to sell their stock on the days following their own stock buyback announcements as they are in the days leading up to the  announcements.
If government cracked down on insider-trading, hedge-fund mavens and top corporate executives wouldn’t be raking in so much money.
A third way to make a billion is to buy off politicians.
The Trump tax cut is estimated to save Charles and the late David Koch and their Koch Industries an estimated $1 to $1.4 billion a year, not even counting their tax savings on profits stored offshore and a shrunken estate tax. The Kochs and their affiliated groups spent some $20 million lobbying for the Trump tax cut, including political donations. Not a bad return on investment.
If we had tough anti-corruption laws preventing political payoffs, the Kochs and other high-rollers wouldn’t get the special tax breaks and other subsidies that have enlarged their fortunes.  
The fourth way to make a billion is to extort big investors.
Adam Neumann conned JP Morgan, SoftBank, and other investors to sink hundreds of millions into WeWork, an office-sharing startup. Neumann used some of the money to buy buildings he leased back to WeWork and to enjoy a lifestyle that included a $60 million private jet. WeWork never made a nickel of profit.
A few months ago, after Neumann was forced to disclose his personal conflicts of interest, WeWork’s initial public offering fell apart and the company’s estimated value plummeted. To salvage what they could, investors paid him over $1 billion to exit the board and give up his voting rights. Most other WeWork employees were left holdingnear-worthless stock options. Thousands were set to be laid off.
If we had tougher anti-fraud laws, Neumann and others like him wouldn’t be billionaires.
The fifth way to be a billionaire is to get the money from rich parents or relatives.
About 60 percent of all the wealth in America today is inherited, according to estimates by economist Thomas Piketty and his colleagues. That’s because, under U.S. tax law – which is itself largely a product of lobbying by the wealthy – the capital gains of one generation are wiped out when those assets are transferred to the next, and the estate tax is so tiny that fewer than 0.2 percent of estates were subject to it last year.  
If unearned income were treated the same as earned income under the tax code, America’s non-working rich wouldn’t be billionaires. And if capital gains weren’t eliminated at death, many heirs wouldn’t be, either.
Capitalism doesn’t work well with monopolies, insider-trading, political payoffs, fraud, and large amounts of inherited wealth. Billionaires who don’t like Sanders’s and Warren’s wealth tax should at least support reforms that end these anti-capitalist advantages.

Trump Betrays the Military

President Donald Trump on Friday cleared three military service members of war crimes, even after being reportedly advised against doing so by Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Army Secretary Ryan McCarthy. Mr. Trump interceded on behalf of Army Maj. Mathew Golsteyn, who had been charged with murdering an Afghan man; Edward Gallagher, a Navy SEAL who was convicted in connection with posing for a photo with the corpse of a fighter in Iraq; and Army First Lt. Clint Lorance, who, after nine fellow unit members testified against him, had been convicted of murdering two civilians in Afghanistan.
Mr. Trump may believe that intervening pays respect to those who have served in uniform, that it shows he’s “pro-military.” But if this is his view, he’s wrong. In reality, Mr. Trump’s meddling undermines the military’s institutional values, risks endangering American service members, and disrespects the honorable service of the overwhelming majority of veterans.
The military strives to ensure that its members adhere to the laws of war and respect human rights. Service members are trained, for example, to avoid civilian casualties by understanding rules of engagement and following the proper steps for escalation of force. They also learn the appropriate ways to treat detainees, and interrogators are trained to employ only the approved, legal methods.
During my two deployments to Afghanistan, my intelligence work helped lead to the capture of insurgent leaders. Sharing responsibility for their capture and as a recipient of the intelligence produced by their interrogations, I had a sense of moral reassurance in the understanding that my colleagues handled and interrogated the detainees humanely — just as they had been trained.

The lessons service members learn about the laws of war are not an afterthought. Rather, they are central, emphasized time and again — from training sessions and exercises, to military ethics discussions, to actual combat deployments. The Army’s official values, after all, demand that soldiers “do what’s right, legally and morally” and “treat others with dignity and respect,” making no exceptions for civilians or even enemies.
The military requires its members to operate in accordance with the laws of war for good reason. Disregarding the laws of war — which Mr. Trump has done by intervening in these cases — jeopardizes mission accomplishment and the safety of service members; excessive civilian casualties, for example, can stimulate further violence, turn local populations against American forces, and discourage allies from collaborating with the United States. Mr. Trump should realize that the laws of war actually serve to benefit our armed forces.
Against this backdrop, Mr. Trump’s intervention on behalf of those convicted or accused of conduct falling short of the military’s crucial legal requirements and moral expectations undermines the training in which the military rightly invests so much effort. It trivializes the values the military spends so much time fostering. He could be endangering United States service members deployed to combat zones by handing their enemies propaganda and recruitment material and by degrading support among local populations.
To be sure, war is complex, and service members accordingly face difficult moral choices under extraordinary pressure. But their preparation helps them make sound decisions in these tough situations, and the military justice system considers the factual circumstances of each case and the intent of the actor.
Benjamin Haas
New York Times
Nov. 15, 2019


Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Letter from an American

I have spent the day madly checking footnotes and making final corrections on the manuscript of my forthcoming book, and I emerged at about 8:00 to look at the news. It hit like a firehose: we have separated almost 70,000 children from their parents under the Trump administration; White House advisor Steve Miller wrote more than 900 emails to a Breitbart reporter advocating white nationalism; Turkey's president Erdogan, the dictator whose troops allegedly committed war crimes when they pushed into northern Syria last month, is visiting the White House tomorrow; Trump campaign manager Paul Manafort's associate Rick Gates said at Trump advisor Roger Stone's trial for lying to Congress that Trump knew about the Wikileaks dumps of DNC emails that had been done by Russia; the Department of Justice is trying to finish a report on the attacks on the 2016 election before Attorney General William Barr presents the alternative one he's working on with John Durham...
and I thought: how on earth will I ever make sense of this tonight?
And then I hit upon a Washington Post article outlining the different approaches Democrats and Republicans are taking toward the public impeachment testimony that starts tomorrow: Democrats want "a serious and somber process of publicly exposing Trump’s misconduct, narrated by career diplomats who were alarmed by the president’s push to have Ukraine investigate former vice president Joe Biden and his son, as well as a debunked theory concerning the 2016 election, in exchange for military aid and a White House visit coveted by Ukraine’s new leader." Meanwhile "Republicans prepared to fervently defend Trump while painting the impeachment probe as a thinly veiled show trial designed to take down a president who did nothing wrong."
And then it hit me. The story for tonight, and indeed for this administration, and for the last several years of the once great Republican Party, is clear. The people in charge of this country right now have abandoned democracy. They are giving Trump a pass for things that they would never have tolerated in a Democrat because they cannot stand to chance another Democratic president; they think they are our country's only legitimate rulers. The world people like Steven Miller wants is a world in which a few leaders, "only the best people," people like Erdogan and Putin and Trump arrange matters in such a way that they control all the wealth and power, since lesser people-- people of color and women-- cannot be trusted to exercise it. We would demand fairer laws that prevent the concentration of wealth and power, and thus we would hurt the ability of our leaders to, well, solve the Middle East crisis singlehandedly, for example, or win an "easy" trade war, or get Kim Jong Un to abandon his nuclear ambitions.
With that stark division in mind, the day's news falls neatly into place: The bombshell news from Roger Stone's trial is that Trump appears to have misled Special Counsel Robert Mueller about his knowledge of the Wikileaks dumps before the 2016 election. Wikileaks had access to files from the Democratic National Committee that had been stolen by Russian intelligence, and it dumped them in such a way as to injure the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and help Trump. Trump's associate Roger Stone was apparently the campaign's contact with Wikileaks, and today Rick Gates (I know, I know, we all need scorecards), said he heard Trump talking about the dumps as early as June 2016, suggesting that he was in on the fix. And, for that matter, Gates claims Stone was talking about the stolen emails as early as April, before the DNC had admitted it had been hacked. In his written answers to questions (because he refused to testify in person), Trump told Mueller that he had no recollection of such conversations. (Pundits are saying this means he lied, but it seems to me saying he couldn't remember is hard to challenge, even if it seems a pretty obvious dodge. Still, in 1998, congressional Republicans were nearly unanimous in thinking that lying under oath was an impeachable offense.)
If staying in power is more important than defending the rule of law, it only makes sense for Barr to be rushing to produce a damning report from an investigation into conspiracy theories about Ukraine's complicity in attacking the 2016 election that his man John Durham has undertaken outside of the normal channels of the Department of Justice, and, in turn, for the DOJ Inspector General to try to get out his report first.
It also makes sense to traumatize migrant children to try keep their families out of the country, because letting such refugees in will add voices to the popular dislike of the current regime. And if they are traumatized, what of it? They are really not children like white kids are, immature and needing nurture well into their adult lives, the same as a 17 year old Black Trayvon Martin buying Skittles was really not a child with a sweet tooth, but rather a dangerous thug in a hoodie. All of those people endanger the world's true leaders... just ask Stephen Miller. Or, rather, read his emails warning that immigration and dark skinned people will destroy the white race.
And as for impeachment, it matters not at all that the Democrats have deliberately invited the initial public testimony, starting tomorrow, to be from former Ukraine Ambassador William Taylor, a former military man appointed by George W. Bush, and the State Department official who oversees Ukraine, George Kent, career diplomats both, who have testified carefully and clearly behind closed doors about the rule of law and the undermining of our national interests in Ukraine. Republicans are already jockeying to make the somber hearings a circus.
Why does this all matter? Because this apparent worldview is antithetical to the principles on which America was founded, the principles which once made us great. At a time when the rest of the Western world was based on the idea that some people were better than others, and that noblemen should rule while the peasants labored, our Founders threw off that idea to insist that all men were created equal and could create an even-handed government in which all men were equal under the rule of law. For all that the Founders excluded women and people of color from their vision of the world, they embraced a principle of equality that stood against the idea of a natural hierarchy. It was a principle that could be, and has been, expanded. If we lose that principle to the idea that some men are better than others, and that it's okay for the current regime to cheat to stay in power, we will have lost what made us great. We will have lost democracy.
So what do you look for tomorrow? Taylor and Kent probably won't say much they didn't say already. Tomorrow is less about substance than about performance art, and whether or not the Republicans can muddy the waters enough to so confuse people they give up trying to understand what happened.
What happened is an attack on our nation. The president tried to extort a foreign leader to say he was investigating one of Trump's main opponents, a poisoning of the media conversation that would've hurt Biden much as the announced investigation of Hillary Clinton's emails hurt her candidacy in 2016. It would've helped to rig the election in Trump's favor. And Republican leaders are looking the other way at this fundamental attack on our democracy because they would rather have a dictator in the White House than a Democrat.
No matter what your political affiliation is, you have to see that stance as fundamentally unAmerican.

Heather Cox Richardson
Nov. 12, 2019

Wednesday, November 6, 2019

The self-pity of the very rich

It must be springtime—or summer, autumn, or winter—because the voice of the billionaire has been heard in the land, and the voice of the billionaire is weepy with self-pity that if the nice lady with plans wins, he might be a slightly smaller billionaire and that some in the world’s wealthiest nation think a little redistribution would mean that, say, thirteen million children don’t have to go hungry anymore. Just for the record the number of billionaires in the USA is about 600; they are a very, very tiny special interest group.
Think of being a billionaire as a rare disease, though far less rare than it was a few decades ago—except that it’s a disease that’s self-inflicted, deserves no sympathy, and is easily cured by dispersal of the huge bolus of money choking their empathic awareness. Unlike people with medical conditions, too, their illness is ours, because it warps the very fiber of our republic with its outsize impact on politics—see, for example, Charles and David Koch, Peter Thiel—and newspapers right now are giving them a forum they don’t need or deserve, and by so doing making their wishes and whims seem like important and relevant things.
Often they are framed as the constituency to be listened to when contemplating the economic future of this country, even though they are guaranteed to be fine no matter what, while perhaps a hundred million of their fellow citizens live lives of quiet financial desperation. That’s thanks in no small part to the rarely acknowledged rearrangement of the US economy over the past 40 years to create massive debt and poverty for the many and extreme wealth for the few.
One hundred million is larger than six hundred, but you wouldn’t know it by who we hear from. About 25 times more people live on the Standing Rock Reservation than are billionaires in the USA, and yet our mainstream publications have not felt compelled to run every possible candidate and consequence by the 15,000-plus members of this native community for approval. (It would be so much more interesting if they did.) Meanwhile, “Fully 60 percent of millionaires support Warren’s plan for taxing the wealth of those who have more than $50 million in assets, according to the CNBC Millionaire survey,” but mainstream media outlets have chosen to amplify the voices of those who don’t.
The voice of the billionaire and the white male pundit have been heard, and of an entire army of conservatives who urgently believe that Democrats need to heed their voice (there is not really an equivalent of liberals or leftists who think Republicans need to follow their electoral strategy, because this demographic is apparently not high on its own fumes). It often seems as though the Democratic and Republican parties are unconsciously perceived as the wife and husband in a very, very traditional marriage, since the former is supposed to defer to and please the latter, and the latter is free to run roughshod over the former. To love, cherish, and above all obey. This might be why for the first two years of Trump, the New York Times, like a helicopter parent, was forever running over to see how Trump voters were feeling since last time they checked, without comparable coverage of how other constituencies were feeling. This asymmetry is amplified by their columnists.
New York Times professional hand-wringers David Brooks and Ross Douthat are among the conservative white men who would like to be Democratic election strategists, and also there is a fox that would like to lovingly tend every bird in your henhouse, and a box of mud with some cleaning tips for you. These conservatives giving free advice to their enemies are generally saying that Democrats should run someone Republicans like, even though Republicans are probably going to [plot disclosure] vote for Republicans. The position is ridiculous, but these men believe devoutly in their own gravitas, as does the Times’s Bret Stephens, who publicly fretted that, “Those with plans for everything prove only that they can’t be trusted to plan for anything,” and went on about how untrustworthy Elizabeth Warren is for telling us what she’ll do.
Stephens included this wisdom about her promise to ban fracking on federal lands: “You don’t have to think that fracking is an unalloyed blessing—much less deny that tough safety standards are necessary—to acknowledge its benefits.” Like local pollution and global destruction, that a few might be employed and the wealthiest men and corporations on earth might squeeze a little more money out of the earth by poisoning it, except that even his own former employer, the Wall Street Journal, has reported that fracking was always a bubble and it’s popping. “Frackers Scrounge for Cash as Wall Street Closes Doors” was a June headline, while Bloomberg News noted in August, “Shares of shale producers have taken a beating in recent months as investors grow increasingly impatient with the sector’s track record of burning cash without producing enough returns.” But Stephens chose to link, instead, to a piece at the National Review, written by someone who, speaking of billionaires, works for a Montana think tank funded by the Koch Brothers, who made their billions on climate destruction. Who do you listen to?
The New York Times, in its eternal oscillation between reporting the news and noxious poppycock, ran a few good pieces, earlier this year, by women, of course, about what a totally misogynist bullshit word is “likability.” But the newspaper that in January ran a piece by a woman headlined “Is ‘Likability’ in Politics Sexist? Yes. It’s Also Outdated” ran a piece this week by a man declaring, “The poll supports concerns among some Democrats that her ideology and gender—including the fraught question of “likability”—could hobble her candidacy among a crucial sliver of the electorate.” New York Times, please fucking read the New York Times. Also, is a crucial sliver shaped like a penis? Or is this an analysis based on the idea that Democrats win by kissing up to the wobbly middle rather than by energizing the radical edge? Or by placating, speaking of husbands, the people who hate human rights, feminism, reproductive rights, economic justice, and environmental protection, by abandoning all the ideals that matter to recruit the enemy?
The piece about Warren’s likability ran the same day in the same newspaper as this headline, “The Warren Way Is the Wrong Way” by Stephen Rattner, who Wikipedia tells me is “chairman and chief executive officer of Willett Advisors LLC, the private investment group that manages billionaire former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg‘s personal and philanthropic assets.” Rattner says of the elite panic we’re seeing everywhere as Warren advances, “She would turn America’s uniquely successful public-private relationship into a dirigiste, European-style system. If you want to live in France (economically), Elizabeth Warren should be your candidate,” and yes I would like to live in France at least in terms of healthcare and trains and college costs, and if our public-private relationship is uniquely successful in any definition that includes Standing Rock and those thirteen million hungry children, then I am the Queen of Sheba.
That likability thing: quite a lot of people do not like men who are running for president, but we do not hear about the likability or lack of likability of them in the same way. A whole army of women might be furious about Joe Biden’s habitual patronization of women—notably young women asking him about climate change recently, Elizabeth Warren testifying on bankruptcy in 2005 and in the recent debate—but apparently this does not raise the question of his likability to the men who do not seem to know that what they mean by likability is that they cannot tell the difference between me and all of us, and they do not like women who want to be president, especially women who might succeed.
“Among the public overall, 38 percent describe themselves as independents,” reports Pew Research Center, “while 31 percent are Democrats and 26 percent call themselves Republicans, according to Pew Research Center surveys conducted in 2018. An overwhelming majority of independents (81 percent) continue to “lean” toward either the Republican Party or the Democratic Party. Among the public overall, 17 percent are Democratic-leaning independents, while 13 percent lean toward the Republican Party.” The math says that is 47 percent on the blue side to 39 percent on the red side, which suggests that the next election will depend on turnout of those who already like a progressive platform, not dilution of that platform or abandonment of it for the sake of those who don’t. Perhaps these pundits are advocating for the elections they wish we were having or we used to have, rather than the one we will have next year, with millions more young people and people of color registered to vote and a lot of old conservative white people laid to their eternal rest (Republican voters are almost all white and skew old too; the party has designed its own extinction.)
I crunched the easily crunched numbers last spring and found out that about 11 percent of Democratic voters in the 2016 presidential election were white men. This told me something really important: that in this context white men are a fairly small minority by gender and by race, even under the extraordinary corrupt conditions of that election that held back huge numbers of people of color from full and fair access to the ballot. If and when we have free and fair elections, even leaving out the coming nonwhite majority, the Republican Party will wither away outside its red pockets and the Democratic Party will be accountable to a far more progressive constituency.
If we had editorials that reflected demographics, maybe we wouldn’t have this avalanche of white guys telling us what to think. But too many publications right now are committed to amplifying minority voices to seem like majority voices and vice-versa. Thus we hear disproportionately from billionaires and conservative white men who believe that we should all want what they want and they should decide. That’s a problem.

Rebecca Solnit
Nov. 6, 2019

Monday, November 4, 2019

Trump’s Economic Policies Have Failed US Workers

By far, the largest chunk of the tax cut that President Trump pushed through Congress in 2017 was slashing the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent. This was justified in part by the idea that the lower tax rate would go along with an elimination of loopholes.
By closing loopholes, revenues collected would be something closer to the legislated tax rate. It also would reduce the resources wasted in tax avoidance. The other justification for the lower tax rate was that it would lead to an investment boom. This was the basis for the claim that the growth from the tax cut would allow it to pay for itself. More rapid growth was supposed to lead to higher tax revenue, more than offsetting the reduction in revenue from the tax cut.
It is now very clear that neither part of this story is true. While corporations are enjoying the benefit of lower tax rates, they continue to find ways to avoid paying the legislated rate. After the tax cut became law, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that corporations would pay $276 billion in taxes this year. This summer, the CBO lowered this projection to just $228 billion — a reduction of more than 17 percent





It would have been nice if the tax cut had been successful in reducing avoidance, but the far more important issue was its impact on investment. By this measure, it has been an even bigger failure.
To have the impact on growth claimed by the Trump administration, we would need increases in investment in the neighborhood of 30 percent annually. Immediately after the tax cut, there was a modest upturn in investment, although it was still in the single digits. The tax cut may have contributed to this upturn, but the increase was no larger than we had seen in several prior years in the recovery.
As the most recent data indicate, even this modest increase has disappeared. Investment fell at a 3.0 percent annual rate in the third quarter, after declining at a 1.0 percent rate in the second quarter. Over the last year, investment has risen just 1.3 percent, less than the growth in the economy. This is not an investment boom.
To be fair, this is not just the failure of the tax cut. Trump’s trade war with China and other countries has led to an enormous amount of uncertainty in the economy. The problem is not simply that he is imposing tariffs; tariffs impose a cost on the economy, but the cost is generally less than the hype around them.
However, Trump’s tariffs are having a larger hit on investment because they are so erratically applied. He seems to take pleasure in threatening and removing tariffs like he is still running a reality TV show. Trump has repeatedly threatened large tariffs and then put off their imposition – or, alternatively, removed tariffs unexpectedly.
This is an environment that makes it very difficult for firms to plan investment. They don’t know what tariffs they are likely to face, both for the products they are selling and for their various inputs, many of which are now imported. In an extreme case, Trump has actually threatened to cut off trade with China altogether, a power he has under provisions for national security.
That sort of uncertainty makes companies put off investment until they can get a clearer view of the future. It’s also worth mentioning in this context that the trade war has not produced benefits in the form of a lower trade deficit. The trade deficit actually rose slightly in the third quarter, as it has throughout Trump’s term.
Trump’s failure on the trade deficit is also visible in manufacturing employment, which hit a record low as a share of total employment in October. This low was partially attributable to the United Auto Workers strike against General Motors. While the jobs lost due to this strike will be regained in November, the fact that we were hovering near a low is due to the weakness of manufacturing job growth under Trump.
The latest data on investment, GDP growth, the trade deficit and manufacturing employment all tell us the same thing. When it comes to producing gains for ordinary workers, Trump’s most-touted economic policies have failed badly. If the issue is giving more money to rich people, he’s doing just great.
Dean Baker
Truthout
Nov. 4, 2019